May 03, 2010
NCGA: Updated Research Model Disputes Ethanol’s Land Use Impact Exaggeration (Cattle Network)
Updates to a scientific model mean that greenhouse gas emissions from corn ethanol, related to land use changes, are less than half what was previously assumed by the California Air Resources Board as it developed its controversial low-carbon fuel standard for the state that penalizes corn ethanol, the National Corn Growers Association said.
In conjunction with Argonne National Laboratories, Purdue University recently presented the latest updates on the Global Trade Analysis Project model, called GTAP, and new results show 14 grams of excess carbon dioxide per megajoule of energy produced, instead of the 30 grams previously estimated by the California Air Resources Board.
“This is just another example showing how ill-equipped the science is behind international indirect land use change,” said NCGA President Darrin Ihnen. “Numbers will continue to improve as assumptions are updated, and the structure of the model is changed to better reflect reality, history, and the complex agricultural system. We are pleased that the industry is making progress, and is seeing updated information being reflected in these models. We hope the California Air Resources Board will take notice of this.”
The inclusion of model results in policy before the science has been fully established goes against the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Ihnen noted. By saddling corn-based ethanol with incorrect emissions, the California standard may increase its reliance on petroleum or foreign sources of ethanol – and worsen our environment and economy.
Updates to the GTAP model include:
- Corn ethanol, sugarcane ethanol, and biodiesel are now all incorporated into the model - Cropland pasture in the United States and Brazil and Conservation Reserve Program lands have been added - Elasticity factors in the model have been updated. - Corn ethanol co-product has been added to the model. - The structure ...
